El Niño 2023 is a climate phenomenon that is expected to continue through the winter with a high probability of over 95%. This event is characterized by above-average ocean surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific, which has been observed with the Niño-3.4 Index being 1.0 °C warmer than the long-term average in July. El Niño affects global weather and climate, leading to changes in rainfall and storm patterns in various regions. It is also known to interact with the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. As El Niño continues to strengthen, there is a good chance that the peak Oceanic Niño Index this winter will indicate a “strong” El Niño event. The impacts of El Niño can vary depending on specific regions and can range from heavy rainfall to droughts. Governments and organizations are urged to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies.
- The chance of El Niño continuing through the winter of 2023 is greater than 95%.
- El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns.
- El Niño impacts global weather and climate, with impacts on rainfall and storms in various regions.
- El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in some areas and severe droughts in others.
- The World Meteorological Organization is urging governments to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies.
What is El Nino 2023?
El Niño 2023 is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years and has recently emerged, with expectations of gradually strengthening into the winter months. With a greater than 95% chance of El Niño continuing through the winter of 2023, it is important to understand the implications and impacts of this coupled phenomenon. El Niño affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns, leading to lower surface air pressure, more rising air, clouds, and rain over the east-central tropical Pacific. This, in turn, has global implications for weather and climate, with impacts on rainfall and storms in various regions.
Introduction to El Niño 2023
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that has the potential to disrupt weather patterns and lead to extreme conditions in different parts of the world. It is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific, which can have far-reaching effects on global weather systems. El Niño events typically last nine to 12 months and occur every two to seven years.
Explaining the Coupled Phenomenon
El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that involves interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. It begins with warmer ocean temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific, which then influence atmospheric patterns. The warmer ocean surface leads to lower surface air pressure and more rising air, creating a feedback loop that further enhances the warming effect. This results in changes to weather patterns and precipitation around the world.
The Warmth of the East-Central Tropical Pacific
One of the key indicators of El Niño 2023 is the warmth of the east-central tropical Pacific. Currently, the east-central tropical Pacific is quite warm, which supports the forecast of El Niño. The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the region, was 1.0 °C warmer than the long-term average in July. Additionally, the Oceanic Niño Index, which provides a broader measure of El Niño conditions, was 0.8 °C above the long-term mean for the May–July average. These indicators suggest that El Niño is well underway and likely to continue.
Key Indicators of El Niño 2023
Several key indicators point to the development and strength of El Niño 2023. The Niño-3.4 Index and the Oceanic Niño Index provide measurements of sea surface temperatures and anomalies in the east-central tropical Pacific. These indices help forecasters and scientists track the progress and intensity of El Niño events. Currently, both indices indicate that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to persist.
Interactions with Atlantic and Pacific Hurricane Seasons
El Niño is known to interact with the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, influencing the formation and intensity of tropical cyclones. While El Niño conditions usually suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity, they can favor strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins. This means that regions such as the Gulf Coast may experience wetter-than-average conditions, while the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley may experience drier-than-average conditions during El Niño winters. It is important for meteorologists and forecasters to consider El Niño conditions when predicting and monitoring hurricane seasons.
In conclusion, El Niño 2023 is a significant climate phenomenon that is expected to continue through the winter months. It is characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific, which influence atmospheric patterns and have global impacts on weather and climate. Understanding the indicators and interactions associated with El Niño is crucial for predicting and preparing for the potential disruptions and extreme conditions that may arise. The World Meteorological Organization and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services play a vital role in monitoring and providing forecasts to support governments, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors.
Impacts of El Nino 2023
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, has emerged and is expected to gradually strengthen into the winter of 2023. With a greater than 95% chance of El Niño continuing through the winter, its impacts on global weather and climate are of great concern. El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns, leading to lower surface air pressure and more rising air, clouds, and rain over the east-central tropical Pacific.
Global Weather and Climate Effects
El Niño’s influence on global weather and climate is significant. It affects rainfall and storm patterns in various regions, interacts with the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons, and is linked to higher global average temperatures. Global climate models predict that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will continue to increase, with a good chance that the peak Oceanic Niño Index this winter will match or exceed 1.5 °C, indicating a “strong” El Niño event.
Influences on Rainfall and Storms
El Niño impacts are influenced by climate change, with rainier areas potentially experiencing more intense rainfall and drier regions becoming even drier. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions during fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions in southern California and along the Gulf Coast, and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Niño conditions usually suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity but favor strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
Climate Change and El Nino
While El Niño is linked to higher global average temperatures, it is not the sole cause of climate change. However, El Niño impacts are influenced by climate change, amplifying its effects. The onset of El Niño is likely to lead to a surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is urging governments to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies, as a WMO report predicts that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the record set in 2016 during an exceptionally strong El Niño.
El Nino’s History and Damaging Events
El Niño has a history of causing significant damage. The El Niño event of 1997-1998 was the strongest in recorded history and caused significant damage in Ecuador. El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, as well as severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America. The impacts of El Niño on specific regions can vary depending on the specific wind and weather patterns.
Bio-indicators and Predicting Strong El Nino Events
Bio-indicators, such as the presence of certain spiders, can indicate the occurrence of strong El Niño events. These indicators provide valuable insights into the potential severity of El Niño’s impacts. The World Meteorological Organization issues Global Seasonal Climate Updates that incorporate influences of other major climate drivers to provide forecasts and outlooks for governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services play a crucial role in monitoring the evolution of El Niño conditions and their impacts at the national and local level.
In conclusion, the emergence of El Niño in 2023 and its projected strengthening into the winter raises concerns about its impacts on global weather and climate. With a high probability of a strong El Niño event, it is crucial for governments and stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate potential damage and disruptions caused by El Niño’s effects on rainfall, storms, and temperature patterns.
Specific Regional Impacts
El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, is expected to have significant impacts on various regions around the world in 2023. The chance of El Niño continuing through the winter is greater than 95%, supported by the warm conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific. This article explores the specific regional impacts of El Niño, highlighting the variability of its effects and the potential consequences for different areas.
Variability of El Nino’s Effects in the Sea of Cortez
The Sea of Cortez, located between the Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico, experiences varying impacts from El Niño events. The specific wind and weather patterns during a particular El Niño season play a crucial role in determining the effects on this region. In some instances, El Niño can lead to warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall in the Sea of Cortez. This can have both positive and negative consequences for marine life, affecting the distribution and abundance of various species. However, it’s important to note that the exact impacts of El Niño on the Sea of Cortez can vary from one event to another, making it challenging to predict the precise outcome.
Impacts on Southern California, Gulf Coast, and Pacific Northwest
El Niño conditions during fall and winter often result in distinct impacts on different regions of the United States. In southern California and along the Gulf Coast, moderate to strong El Niño conditions typically bring wetter-than-average conditions. These areas may experience heavier rainfall, which can lead to flooding and other water-related issues. On the other hand, the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley tend to experience drier-than-average conditions during El Niño winters. This can lead to decreased rainfall and potentially contribute to drought conditions in these regions.
Northern Tier’s Warmer Chances during El Nino Winters
While El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is generally weak during the summer, it becomes more pronounced in late fall through spring. One notable effect is the impact on temperatures across the northern tier of the country. El Niño winters often bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures in these areas. This can have implications for various sectors, including agriculture, energy consumption, and outdoor activities. However, it’s important to remember that weather patterns are complex and can be influenced by multiple factors, so the exact extent of the warming effect may vary from year to year.
In conclusion, El Niño events have the potential to significantly impact specific regions around the world. The Sea of Cortez experiences varying effects depending on the specific wind and weather patterns during an El Niño season. Southern California and the Gulf Coast may see increased rainfall, while the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley may experience drier conditions. Additionally, El Niño winters often bring warmer temperatures to the northern tier of the United States. It is crucial for governments, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors to monitor and prepare for these regional impacts to mitigate potential disruptions to health, ecosystems, and economies.
Predictions and Expectations
El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, has emerged and is expected to gradually strengthen into the winter of 2023. With a greater than 95% chance of El Niño continuing through the winter, it is important to understand the potential impacts and expectations associated with this climatic event.
Gradual Strengthening of El Niño 2023
The east-central tropical Pacific is currently experiencing warm conditions, providing strong support for the forecast of El Niño. In July, the Niño-3.4 Index was 1.0 °C above the long-term average, while the Oceanic Niño Index recorded a 0.8 °C deviation from the mean for the May–July period. These indicators suggest that El Niño is gaining momentum and likely to intensify in the coming months.
Frequency and Duration of El Niño Events
El Niño typically lasts for a period of nine to twelve months, occurring at intervals ranging from two to seven years. However, the current El Niño event of 2023 is predicted to exhibit a stronger intensity. Global climate models forecast that the Pacific ocean conditions, which are already warmer than average, will continue to increase. There is a good chance that the peak Oceanic Niño Index this winter will match or exceed 1.5 °C, indicating a “strong” El Niño event.
Possible Heavy Rainfall and Droughts
El Niño’s influence on global weather and climate patterns is significant. It leads to lower surface air pressure and triggers the rise of air, clouds, and rain over the east-central tropical Pacific. This, in turn, affects various regions across the globe, resulting in changes in rainfall and storm patterns. El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. On the other hand, these events can also cause severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America. As El Niño continues to strengthen, it is crucial to monitor these potential impacts and take necessary precautions.
El Niño’s Influence on the U.S.
El Niño’s impact on the United States is generally weaker during the summer months but becomes more pronounced from late fall through spring. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is an 84% chance of a greater than moderate strength El Niño and a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing by winter. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter seasons typically result in wetter-than-average conditions in southern California and along the Gulf Coast, while drier-than-average conditions are observed in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Additionally, El Niño winters often bring an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country. It is important for individuals and communities in these regions to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño.
The Role of the Climate Prediction Center
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of the National Weather Service, plays a vital role in monitoring and predicting El Niño conditions. Their seasonal outlooks take into consideration the influence of El Niño on global weather patterns. By analyzing data such as sea surface temperature anomalies and climate models, the CPC provides forecasts and outlooks to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors. As El Niño conditions continue to develop, the CPC will closely monitor its evolution and provide valuable information at both the national and local levels.
In conclusion, with El Niño conditions emerging in 2023 and the likelihood of a strong event developing, it is important to stay informed about the potential impacts. The gradual strengthening of El Niño, coupled with its influence on rainfall, droughts, and temperature patterns, highlights the need for proactive measures and preparedness. By monitoring the predictions and expectations provided by organizations like the Climate Prediction Center, individuals, governments, and stakeholders can take appropriate actions to mitigate the effects of this natural climate phenomenon.
Preparing for El Nino 2023
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, has emerged and is expected to gradually strengthen into the winter of 2023. The chance of El Niño continuing through the winter is greater than 95%, with global climate models predicting that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will continue to increase. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is urging governments to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies.
World Meteorological Organization’s Call to Action
Recognizing the potential surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns associated with the onset of El Niño, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is calling on governments to take proactive measures. In a recent report, the WMO predicts that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the record set in 2016 during an exceptionally strong El Niño. With the understanding that El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in certain regions and severe droughts in others, the WMO emphasizes the need for preparedness to mitigate the impacts on health, ecosystems, and economies.
Health, Ecosystem, and Economic Implications
El Niño has far-reaching effects on various aspects of society, from public health to agriculture and economy. The WMO report highlights that El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, which can lead to flooding, waterborne diseases, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. Conversely, severe droughts occur in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America, impacting agriculture, water supply, and livelihoods.
Furthermore, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean during the Boreal summer but may hinder hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. This dynamic has implications for disaster preparedness and response in coastal regions. The WMO underscores the need for governments and stakeholders to consider these health, ecosystem, and economic implications and take appropriate measures to protect vulnerable populations and minimize the potential damages.
Mobilizing Preparations to Limit Impacts
To effectively address the challenges posed by El Niño, the WMO emphasizes the importance of mobilizing preparations at all levels. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will play a crucial role in monitoring the evolution of El Niño conditions and their impacts at the national and local level. By closely tracking the development of El Niño, these services can provide timely and accurate information to inform decision-making processes and support disaster risk reduction efforts.
Governments, the United Nations, and other decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors can rely on the forecasts and outlooks provided by the World Meteorological Organization. These resources aim to guide strategic planning and facilitate informed decisions to minimize the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies. By proactively mobilizing preparations and leveraging the expertise and guidance offered by the WMO, nations can enhance their resilience and response capabilities in the face of this climate phenomenon.
Monitoring El Nino’s Evolution
Monitoring El Niño’s evolution is crucial for anticipating and responding to its impacts effectively. The WMO highlights the significance of monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which have significantly warmed since February 2023, indicating the presence of El Niño conditions. This data, along with other climate indicators, serves as valuable information for meteorological and hydrological services to determine the severity and potential impacts of El Niño.
By continuously monitoring El Niño’s progression, the global community can stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly. The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Updates incorporate influences of other major climate drivers, offering a comprehensive analysis of the evolving climate patterns. This information empowers decision-makers to make informed choices and allocate resources effectively, ensuring a coordinated and proactive response to El Niño.
Forecasts and Outlooks for Climate-Sensitive Sectors
Climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, water management, and infrastructure development, rely on accurate forecasts and outlooks to plan and mitigate the potential impacts of El Niño. The World Meteorological Organization provides these essential resources to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in these sectors.
With El Niño expected to continue during the second half of 2023, the WMO’s forecasts and outlooks become even more critical. These resources enable stakeholders to anticipate the specific challenges they may face, whether it be excessive rainfall, droughts, or other climate-related events. Armed with this knowledge, governments and organizations can implement strategies to minimize disruptions, protect assets, and ensure the well-being of their populations.
In summary, as El Niño emerges and strengthens, it is crucial for governments, stakeholders, and communities to heed the World Meteorological Organization’s call to action. By mobilizing preparations, monitoring the evolution of El Niño, and utilizing the forecasts and outlooks provided, we can limit the impacts of this climate phenomenon on health, ecosystems, and economies. Through proactive measures and informed decision-making, we can build resilience and adapt to the challenges that El Niño presents.
Historical and Future Records
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, has emerged and is expected to gradually strengthen into the winter of 2023. The chance of El Niño continuing through the winter is greater than 95%, according to the latest research. El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns. It leads to lower surface air pressure and more rising air, clouds, and rain over the east-central tropical Pacific. The impacts of El Niño are far-reaching, affecting global weather and climate, with impacts on rainfall and storms in various regions.
WMO’s Prediction of Record-breaking Years
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the record set in 2016 during an exceptionally strong El Niño. The WMO is urging governments to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies. With the onset of El Niño, a surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns are expected.
El Niño’s Impact on Rainfall and Droughts
El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. However, they also bring severe droughts to regions such as Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America. The impacts of El Niño on specific regions can vary depending on the specific wind and weather patterns. For example, the Sea of Cortez experiences different impacts depending on these factors.
Hurricanes in Central/Eastern Pacific vs Atlantic Basin
El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean during the Boreal summer, potentially leading to increased hurricane activity in that region. However, it may hinder hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. El Niño conditions usually suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity but favor strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have significantly warmed since February 2023, indicating the presence of El Niño conditions. The east-central tropical Pacific is quite warm, supporting the forecast of El Niño. The Niño-3.4 Index and Oceanic Niño Index, which measure temperature anomalies, have both been above their long-term averages, further confirming the presence of El Niño.
Global Seasonal Climate Updates and Forecasts
The World Meteorological Organization issues Global Seasonal Climate Updates that incorporate influences of other major climate drivers. These updates provide forecasts and outlooks to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors. In the coming months, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will monitor the evolution of El Niño conditions and their impacts at the national and local level.
In conclusion, El Niño has emerged and is expected to have a significant impact on global weather and climate patterns in 2023. The WMO predicts record-breaking years ahead and urges governments to prepare for the potential consequences of El Niño on various sectors. Understanding the historical and future records of El Niño, including its impact on rainfall, droughts, hurricanes, sea surface temperatures, and global climate, is crucial for effective planning and response strategies.
Supporting Decision-Makers and Stakeholders
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, has emerged and is expected to gradually strengthen into the winter of 2023. This weather event, characterized by warmer-than-average ocean conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific, has significant implications for global weather and climate. As decision-makers and stakeholders navigate the potential impacts of El Niño, monitoring and collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) play a crucial role in understanding and preparing for the associated risks.
Monitoring and Local Impacts
El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns. Monitoring the evolution of El Niño conditions is essential in assessing its potential impacts. Recent observations indicate a high probability of El Niño continuing through the winter of 2023, with the east-central tropical Pacific experiencing above-average temperatures. The Niño-3.4 Index, a key indicator of El Niño, was 1.0 °C warmer than the long-term average in July, while the Oceanic Niño Index recorded a 0.8 °C above the long-term mean for the May–July period.
El Niño is known to influence global weather and climate, impacting rainfall and storms in various regions. While its precise effects can vary, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during fall and winter often result in wetter-than-average conditions in southern California and along the Gulf Coast, as well as drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Additionally, El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic Hurricane activity but favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
El Niño’s impacts are not limited to the United States, as the phenomenon interacts with climate patterns worldwide. Parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia experience increased rainfall during El Niño events. Conversely, Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America often face severe droughts. Understanding the local impacts of El Niño is crucial for decision-makers and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors, enabling them to formulate effective strategies and response plans.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
To support decision-makers and stakeholders, collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services is vital. These institutions monitor the evolution of El Niño conditions and their impacts at the national and local level. Through their expertise and access to real-time data, NMHS can provide valuable insights into the progression of El Niño and its potential consequences.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) plays a central role in coordinating and providing forecasts and outlooks related to El Niño. As El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, the WMO has issued Global Seasonal Climate Updates that consider the influence of other major climate drivers. These updates incorporate the latest information on El Niño’s progression and provide valuable guidance for governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors.
In light of the expected surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns resulting from El Niño, the WMO urges governments to mobilize preparations. This proactive approach aims to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies. By heeding the WMO’s call and collaborating with NMHS, decision-makers and stakeholders can better navigate the challenges posed by this natural climate phenomenon.
In conclusion, as El Niño continues to develop in 2023, supporting decision-makers and stakeholders becomes paramount. Through monitoring El Niño’s evolution and local impacts, as well as collaborating with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, decision-makers can make informed choices and implement effective strategies to mitigate risks and adapt to changing weather and climate conditions. The guidance provided by organizations like the World Meteorological Organization ensures that decision-makers have the necessary information to protect communities, economies, and ecosystems from the potential effects of El Niño.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a coupled phenomenon that affects both ocean surface temperature and atmospheric patterns. It leads to lower surface air pressure and more rising air, clouds, and rain over the east-central tropical Pacific. El Niño also has global impacts on weather and climate, affecting rainfall and storms in various regions. It is known to interact with the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.
How often does El Niño occur?
El Niño occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months. The current El Niño event is the first in seven years.
What are the impacts of El Niño?
El Niño can cause impacts such as heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations. The specific impacts vary depending on the region and the specific wind and weather patterns. El Niño winters bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country. El Niño conditions usually suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity but favor strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
What is the likelihood of El Niño continuing through the winter of 2023?
The chance of El Niño continuing through the winter of 2023 is greater than 95%. There is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. Global climate models predict that the warmer-than-average Pacific ocean conditions will continue to increase.
How does El Niño relate to climate change?
El Niño is linked to higher global average temperatures, but it is not the sole cause of climate change. El Niño impacts are influenced by climate change, with rainier areas potentially experiencing more intense rainfall and drier regions becoming even drier. A WMO report predicts that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, surpassing the record set in 2016 during an exceptionally strong El Niño.
What should governments and stakeholders do to prepare for El Niño?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is urging governments to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts of El Niño on health, ecosystems, and economies. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will monitor the evolution of El Niño conditions and their impacts at the national and local level. The World Meteorological Organization provides forecasts and outlooks to support governments, the United Nations, decision-makers, and stakeholders in climate-sensitive sectors.
How can El Niño be detected?
El Niño can be detected through various indicators. The Niño-3.4 Index, which measures the temperature difference in the east-central tropical Pacific, was 1.0 °C warmer than the long-term average in July. The Oceanic Niño Index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies, was 0.8 °C above the long-term mean for the May–July average. Monthly average sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have significantly warmed since February 2023, indicating the presence of El Niño conditions. Bio-indicators, such as the presence of certain spiders, can also indicate the occurrence of strong El Niño events.
How does El Niño affect specific regions?
El Niño impacts can vary depending on the region. El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, as well as severe droughts in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America, and northern South America. The impacts of El Niño on specific regions, such as the Sea of Cortez, can vary depending on the specific wind and weather patterns.
How does El Niño affect the United States?
El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is weak during the summer and more pronounced in late fall through spring. Moderate to strong El Niño conditions during fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions in southern California and along the Gulf Coast, and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Nino conditions usually suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity but favor strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
Are there any future predictions or forecasts for El Niño?
There is a good chance that the peak Oceanic Niño Index this winter will match or exceed 1.5 °C, indicating a “strong” El Niño event. The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlooks will continue to consider El Niño conditions. The World Meteorological Organization issues Global Seasonal Climate Updates that incorporate influences of other major climate drivers. Positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere in the coming months.
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